DE/LU Day-Ahead Price Forecast Nov 11–24: Stable Pattern with Midday Peaks
We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.
• 📊 Hourly price rhythm: Prices remain lowest overnight around €67 at 01:00 and climb steadily toward €129 at 16:00, forming a consistent late-afternoon peak pattern across the 14-day horizon. This reflects a predictable intraday structure with minimal overnight volatility.
• 🌬️ Wind-driven moderation: Wind speeds reach daily averages above 10 m/s on November 15 and 16, coinciding with lower mean prices near €97–99 and widespread cloud cover above 90 %. Wind presence aligns with mild downward price pressure during those days.
• ☀️ Solar influence: The brightest period occurs on November 12–13 with solar radiation above 60 W/m² and lower cloudiness near 60 %. Midday prices stabilize between €88 and €109, showing balanced generation effects under stronger sunlight.
• 💡 Standout price events: The highest quarter-hourly forecast of €179.96 appears on November 17 at 16:00 under moderate wind (7.8 m/s) and cloud cover (68 %). The lowest quarter-hourly value of €–6.21 occurs on November 23 at 01:00, linked with light winds (4.1 m/s) and full cloud cover (97 %).
• 📈 Price range comparison: Daily maximum peak price predictions vary from €132 to €179, while minimums span €–6 to €81, marking a €185 spread over the two-week forecast. Despite fluctuations, most days maintain average prices between €90 and €110 across the DE/LU zone.
When we analyze the forecast quality of last week's day-ahead market electricity prices for the German market, we can observe two things. Overall, we had quite a high accuracy for most of the week: on three days (5.11, 6.11, 9.11) we exactly predicted the right peak times. On the 7th and 8th, we were only two time steps off. The overall MAE was at 22.91 EUR/MWh. However, we were for one day's forecast - the 4th of November - off, by massively overestimating the afternoon peak and prices in the following night. Here, we were 36 time steps off, when it comes to the peak price time prediction.
