DE/LU Day-Ahead Price Forecast Nov 18–30: Elevated Price Levels and >250€ Peak on Nov 21

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Hourly pattern consistency: The average hourly curve shows stable night-time prices around €69–72, rising through the morning to €124 at 07:00 and reaching a late-afternoon high of €140 at 17:00 before easing toward €74–83 by midnight.

• 🌬️ Wind and weather dominance: Wind peaks on 19 Nov with an average 11.23 m/s, while 21 Nov shows the weakest wind near 6.05 m/s, accompanied by cloud cover generally between 57–79 percent and solar radiation mostly below 60 W/m² across the period.

• 📅 Standout forecast days: The highest forecasted daily peak price appears on 21 Nov at €254.23, whereas 22 Nov exhibits one of the lowest minima at €45.44, producing the widest intra-day spread in the dataset.

• 🔺 Peak price observations: Prices exceed €150 on multiple days, including €156.38 on 18 Nov and €191.26 on 20 Nov, with the strongest peak at €254.23 on 21 Nov during a low-temperature and low-wind interval averaging −0.65 °C and 6.05 m/s.

• 📈 Price range comparisons: Daily price spans vary substantially, from narrower brackets such as €72–156 on 18 Nov to wider intervals like €45–122 on 22 Nov, aligned with shifts in wind between 7.2–10.7 m/s and cloud cover ranging from 42–79 percent across the forecast window.

Our last week's free forecast of German day-ahead electricity prices had ad MAE of 18€/MWh. Regarding the peak time estimations, we were 2 time steps (i.e., quarter hours) away on the 11th, -6 on the 13th, and exactly right on the 16th of November. However, we estimated an afternoon peak instead of a morning peak on the 12th and 14th, and were hence 32 and 34 time steps off.