DE/LU Day-Ahead Price Forecast Nov 4–16: Afternoon Peak at €368, Wind Drives €49 Lows

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Intra-day pattern consistency: Prices follow a strict diurnal cycle with midday lows at €54–78 during hours 11–14, gradual rises through early morning to €103–135 at hours 5–7, and sustained peaks between 16:00–17:00 averaging €210–215 per MWh. Evening prices (17:00–20:00) average €164, which is 1.84 times higher than midday equivalent hours, demonstrating stable and predictable hourly price structure across the entire forecast period.
• 💨 Wind conditions show limited direct price relief: Average wind speed across the forecast period reaches 7.34 m/s with maximum gusts of 35.52 m/s, yet the highest-priced days (November 8, 10, 11, and 15) coincide with lower wind speeds of 4–6 m/s. Nine of thirteen forecast days experience wind speeds above 6 m/s, yet prices remain elevated, suggesting wind generation alone does not dominate price formation during this period.
• ⚠️ Extreme price spikes emerge on November 10 and 15: November 10 records a maximum price of €368.89 with an average daily price of €153.54, while November 15 reaches €420.18—the highest price in the entire forecast period—with reduced solar radiation at 232 W/m² and below-average wind at 4.2 m/s. These two events represent true outliers, each exceeding €270 against the first-week baseline of €180–210.
• 🔴 Hour 17:00 (5 PM) dominates as price peak: The 17:00 settlement hour averages €215.16 across all days, with hour 16:00 close behind at €209.95, while hours 4–7 show secondary peaks of €103–135 driven by morning ramp demand. The evening price concentration reflects evening load patterns and reduced renewable output, establishing 16:00–18:00 as the consistently highest-priced window in daily trading.
• 📈 Price amplitude varies from €48 overnight low to €420 peak: Daily minimum prices range from €48.32 (November 4 overnight) to €95.16 (November 10 overnight), while daily maximums progress from €154–204 in early-period days to €264–368 by mid-forecast, creating volatility spans of €105–370 within single days. The first week (November 4–10) shows daily max prices averaging €201, while the second week escalates to average €260, signaling increasing price pressures mid-period.

Last week's forecasting performance

For last week's week-ahead forecast, we reached an average MAE of 15.65 EUR/MWh, with an excellent prediction accuracy of overall price trends. On the 30th, we got the exact peak time right, and on the 29th and 31th we were only one and two time steps off.