⚡DE/LU Oct 28–Nov 9 Day-Ahead Price Forecast: Evening Peaks €167+

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Daily price pattern consistency: Prices remain lowest overnight and midday around €47–53, then spike dramatically in the 16:00–18:00 window to €109–116 average, with the absolute maximum of €167.18 occurring on November 4 at 17:45. A secondary morning peak emerges between 6–7am at approximately €72, creating a consistent bimodal daily distribution throughout the forecast period.
• 💨 Wind supply variability drives price inversions by day: Low-wind days (October 29–31 and November 5 at 9–11 m/s average) correlate with elevated maximum daily prices reaching €150–€164, while strong-wind days (November 3, 7–8 at 20+ m/s average) see significantly lower peak pricing at €106–€115, meaning wind variations create €30–€40 differences in daily price maxima across the forecast period, with high-wind days averaging €123 peaks versus low-wind days averaging €153 peaks.
• 📈 Standout price events and day-level ranges: November 4 reaches the forecast maximum of €167.18 with the widest daily range of €132.37 between minimum €34.81 and maximum, while November 1–2 show the period's lowest average prices at €54 and €39 respectively, and November 8 records the absolute minimum of €1.51 at midnight, indicating periods of substantial renewable oversupply alternating with scarcity.
• ⚡ Peak pricing window consistency: The 16:00–18:00 evening window consistently delivers the highest daily prices on all 13 forecast days, with absolute prices reaching €64–€167 and hourly averages of €109–€116, while the morning 6–7am secondary peak averages €72 and transition hours between these peaks exhibit €20+ volatility per individual hour.
• 📏 Intra-day price range and overnight stability: Daily price ranges vary from €60.85 (November 2, narrowest) to €132.37 (November 4, widest), with overnight-to-midday prices clustering between €1–€96 and evening spikes concentrated at €64–€167, meaning 60–75% of daily volatility concentrates within the single 4–6pm window across the entire forecast horizon.