DE/LU Price Forecast Dec 2–8: Low Wind Speeds Shape Afternoon Price Peaks

Leo Semmelmann

01 Dec 2025 — 3 min read

Forecast of German day-ahead electricity prices from December 2nd, 2025, on

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

💨 Peak of €264.79 occurs Wednesday December 3 at 17:15 when wind drops to 5.6 m/s: This absolute maximum in the next 7 days is sustained across a 75-minute window from 17:00–18:15, with prices remaining above €245 for the full period. The top 7 prices in the forecast all occur on this single day between 16:00–18:45, indicating a rare convergence of weak wind (5.5–5.7 m/s) and evening demand compression.
📊 December 3 afternoon-to-evening (16:00–18:45) delivers ten of the top 15 prices in the next 7 days, all €230+: This sustained 165-minute high-price plateau from €235–265 reflects a dramatic wind weakness event where afternoon wind drops from typical 10+ m/s to 5.5 m/s. Cloud cover remains stable at 85–89% throughout, confirming wind as the sole price driver with negative correlation of −0.42.
🌪️ Wind speeds of 5.5–5.7 m/s on December 3 (the lowest of the next 7 days) contrast sharply with Monday December 8 at 16.4 m/s: This extreme wind differential of 10.8 m/s between lowest and highest wind days directly explains why December 8 peaks only at €110.38 (highest at 07:45) while December 3 reaches €264.79. Monday's strong wind maintains prices below €110 all day despite evening timing.
⏰ Early morning peaks on December 4 (€227.38 at 07:15) and December 8 (€110.38 at 07:45) show reversed diurnal pattern when wind becomes weak or strong: December 4 morning spike to €227 occurs with wind at 5.5 m/s, while December 8 morning reaches only €110 at 07:45 with wind at 16.4 m/s. This demonstrates that wind weakness overrides traditional demand timing, creating unpredictable peak hours outside the typical 16:00–19:00 evening window.
❄️ Minimum price of €45.80 on December 2 at 03:00 establishes the price floor with wind at 10.2 m/s, creating a €218.99 total range across next 7 days: Winter conditions show cloud cover 85–91% with peak solar reaching only 23 W/m² on December 3, making solar negligible (positive correlation 0.26). The entire €219 price span from €45.80 to €264.79 is driven exclusively by wind variability between 4.7 and 16.4 m/s.

Most important features over all forecasted weather stations, used for the Quantum0.1 predictions of of German day-ahead electricity prices

Our last week's free forecast of German day-ahead electricity prices had an overall MAE of 37.99€/MWh, mainly because of high deviations on the 25th of November. Although we correctly estimated the high price period on the 25th and 26th, we underestimated the height of it. Nonetheless, a 50 MWh, 0.5 P/E ratio, 2 cycles/day BESS operated with our Quantum0.1 week-ahead forecast would have made a profit of 33,172€, which is 67.1% of the theoretical optimum (49k€).