DE/LU Price Forecast Dec 23-30: Moderate prices over Christmas

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Daily pattern consistency: Prices follow a clear dual-peak structure across the forecast period, averaging €78 at 02:00, climbing to €120 during the 06:00–07:00 morning peak, easing to €102–107 midday, then rising sharply to the daily maximum of €142 at 16:00 before declining to €108 by 19:00.
• 💨 Wind dominance periods: Strong wind conditions above 20 m/s suppress prices significantly, as seen on January 1 (20.1 m/s average) and January 4 (23.0 m/s average), where daily means drop to €82 and €63 respectively. December 26 shows the inverse effect, with only 6.5 m/s wind corresponding to the second-highest afternoon peak at €191 at 16:45.
• ⚡ Standout price events: December 29 records the forecast's highest price at €204 at 16:00 with moderate wind (10.0 m/s) and low cloud cover (26%), while January 4 reaches the forecast low of €27 at 05:00 under strong wind (23.0 m/s) and overcast conditions (95% cloud cover). New Year's Day also dips to €28 at 20:30, combining holiday demand reduction with 20.1 m/s wind.
• 🔺 Peak price observations: Afternoon peaks (15:00–18:00) show a €100 spread across the period, ranging from €95 on January 1 to €195 on December 29. Three days—December 26, December 29, and January 2—see afternoon averages exceeding €165, all occurring on days with wind speeds below 12 m/s.
• 📈 Price range comparisons: Intraday volatility varies substantially, with December 23 and December 28 showing compressed €61 ranges while December 26 exhibits the widest daily swing at €125 (from €66 at 03:15 to €191 at 16:45). The overall forecast spans €27 to €204, a €177 spread driven primarily by wind variability between 6.5 and 23.0 m/s.

Last week, we reached a MAE of 20.84 EUR/MWh. While we had a good peak price time forecasting (-3, 5, 1 steps off) for the first days, later in the week our forecast was a little bit off, due to degrading 5-day look-ahead weather forecasting performance.