DE/LU Price Forecast Dec 9–16: Elevated day-ahead prices ahead

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Hourly price consistency: Prices follow a strict intra-day pattern across all 13 days, with night hours (00:00–05:00) averaging €72.79, a midday dip near €80.53 at noon, and a sharp rise to peak hours (16:00–17:00) averaging €140.48, creating a consistent spread of €67.69 between overnight lows and evening peaks. This pattern repeats with only minor variation, indicating strong structural demand and supply dynamics that dominate daily price movements.
• 💨 Wind dominance and suppression spreads: Wind speed exhibits the strongest correlation with prices (−0.53 coefficient), with high-wind periods averaging €72.58 versus low-wind periods at €110.11, a spread of €37.53 driven purely by renewable output. Saturday December 20 with extreme wind at 28.4 m/s averaged only €50.32 with the absolute trough of €3.90, while low-wind Sunday December 12 at 5.76 m/s reached €182.89, demonstrating wind's capability to suppress prices by up to 45% relative to the 13-day mean of €92.79.
• ⚡ Standout peak and extreme events: Sunday December 14 records the absolute period peak of €201.37 at 17:45 under low-wind conditions (7.18 m/s), reflecting convergence of evening demand, minimal wind supply, and weekend constraints with a daily range of €129.01. Conversely, Saturday December 20 exhibits extreme price collapse with an €107.56 daily range (€3.90–€111.45) driven by gale-force wind at 28.4 m/s, making it the most suppressed day of the forecast.
• 📉 Daily volatility and range variation: Daily price ranges vary dramatically across the forecast, from a low of €77.14 on December 13 to a high of €134.67 on December 16, with nine of thirteen days exceeding €90 in intra-day range. December 14, 16, and 21 each show ranges above €119, while December 19 and 20 experience exceptional downward pressure from sustained high wind (21.2 m/s and 28.4 m/s respectively), pushing daily means to €78.15 and €50.32.
• 🔝 Absolute period metrics and spread summary: The complete forecast spans €197.47 from trough to peak (€3.90 on Dec 20 02:00 to €201.37 on Dec 14 17:45), with wind-driven volatility accounting for €37.53 of the variation, hourly demand cycles adding €67.69 of spread, and daily ranges averaging €104.87 across the period. The 16:00–17:00 peak hour window alone contains a €138.82 range (€62.55–€201.37), demonstrating concentrated price risk in evening demand hours under low-wind scenarios.

Our last week's free forecast of German day-ahead electricity prices had an overall MAE of 21.68€/MWh. Last week, we predicted:

"📊 December 3 afternoon-to-evening (16:00–18:45) delivers ten of the top 15 prices in the next 7 days, all €230+: This sustained 165-minute high-price plateau from €235–265 reflects a dramatic wind weakness event where afternoon wind drops from typical 10+ m/s to 5.5 m/s. Cloud cover remains stable at 85–89% throughout, confirming wind as the sole price driver with negative correlation of −0.42."

We were only two time-steps off in forecasting the last period's peak price!