DE/LU Price Forecast Dec 16-22: Volatile, but high prices ahead

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Daily price pattern consistency: Prices establish overnight floors around €93–94 at 02:00, then rise steeply through the morning to €132 by 06:00, continuing upward to a pronounced peak of €162 at 16:00 before declining €43 by 20:00. This pattern repeats consistently across all 13 days with standard deviations of €17–21 per hour during low-volatility periods and €25–41 during peak afternoon hours.
• 💨 Wind-driven price suppression in midday hours: Wind speed shows a negative correlation of −0.182 with prices, with average prices at €114.59 when wind exceeds 12 m/s compared to €120.30 in lower wind conditions, a €5.71 differential. The lowest price of €39.56 occurred on December 21 at 12:15 with 16.25 m/s wind and 111.53 W/m² solar radiation, demonstrating combined wind and solar support suppressing midday values.
• ⚠️ Standout price volatility events in mid-late December: December 22 reaches the forecast maximum of €217.90 at 07:15 with minimal wind (8.44 m/s) and low solar output (2.44 W/m²), representing a €178.34 spread from period minimum. December 24 records the largest daily range of €135.60, spanning €75.20 to €210.80 with elevated wind at 14.64 m/s average.
• 🔝 Strong afternoon peak concentration at 15:00–17:00 window: Hour 16 averages €161.64 across all days with a narrow standard deviation of €29, flanked by hour 15 at €145.58 and hour 17 at €158.29, creating a persistent three-hour cluster above €145. This peak period dominates volatility and represents the highest price exposure in the forecast window.
• 📈 Daily range compression through late December with cloud cover decline: Daily ranges narrow from €116.43 on December 17 to €58.62 on December 27 as cloud cover drops from 71.47% to 6.21%, with the minimum range on December 27 coinciding with the lowest cloud cover (6.21%) and lowest wind variability. Total forecast spans €178.34 from €39.56 to €217.90 with 13 distinct daily cycles.

Our last week's free forecast of German day-ahead electricity prices had an overall MAE of 16.39 EUR/MWh, showing outstanding performance again. On the 9th, our peak price prediction was only 1 time step off; on the 13th, we exactly hit it. Only on the 14th (which was almost a week ahead), we overestimated the afternoon peak price.