DE/LU Price Forecast Feb10-Feb 17: Up to €100/MWh Spreads

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 🕒 The quarter-hourly price structure shows a consistent intraday pattern across the week with lower levels overnight and higher prices during late afternoon and early evening, with daily averages ranging from about €95 on Feb 14 to around €137 on Feb 11, which is above typical winter day-ahead averages but not persistently elevated throughout all hours.
• 🌬️ Wind conditions dominate the weather backdrop, with daily mean wind speeds between roughly 7.6 m/s and 12.4 m/s, which is high relative to typical annual averages, while temperatures remain low at around 2–6 °C and solar radiation stays modest for winter, even on the brightest day at about 61 W/m².
• 📅 Feb 11 stands out as the most pronounced price day, with prices climbing from around €78 in the early hours to nearly €200 in the late afternoon, coinciding with very high cloud cover near 99 % and limited solar contribution, which is low even by winter standards.
• 🔺 The single highest observed price in the forecast is about €199 at 17:15 on Wednesday, Feb 11, aligning with the typical evening peak hour and exceeding the weekly maximums on surrounding days by roughly €30–50.
• 📊 Across the forecast window, daily price ranges vary from roughly €70–75 on calmer days like Feb 14 to more than €120 on Feb 11, indicating noticeably wider intraday spreads midweek compared with the overall level of winter day-ahead prices.

Last week's forecast, we achieved a MAE of 17.18 EUR/MWh, with strong pattern predictions on the 5th and 6th.