DE/LU Price Forecast Feb3-Feb 10: Prices moderate now, rising until Feb 9th
We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.
• 📊 Daily price pattern: The quarter-hourly profile stays broadly consistent with the lowest hourly prices clustering overnight around 02:00–04:00, while the highest hourly prices typically occur in the late afternoon around 16:00–18:00. On average across the forecast, the hourly trough is around €93.75 at 03:00 and the strongest hour is around €161.31 at 16:00.
• 🌬️ Wind and weather dominance: Daily average wind speeds range from 7.56–16.63 m/s, which is relatively elevated for winter conditions during the windiest days, while daily average temperatures stay in a narrow winter band of about -2.73°C to 1.95°C. Daily average solar radiation peaks around 60 W/m² and cloud cover stays high at roughly 72–100%, meaning even the brightest days in this period still show low winter solar levels.
• 📅 Standout price day: The highest hourly price in the forecast occurs on 2026-02-11 at 17:00 with €235.21, and the same day also shows the widest intraday range with prices moving from €106.04 up to €235.21. This makes 2026-02-11 the clearest single-day outlier for high absolute prices in the 14-day window.
• 🔺 Peak price observations: Several days show evening peak hours above €180, including 2026-02-09 reaching €222.43 and 2026-02-13 reaching €190.85 at their daily highs. The overall lowest hourly price appears on 2026-02-15 at 04:00 with €68.88, keeping the minimum firmly in the early-morning hours.
• 💶 Price range comparison: Across the full period at HH:00, hourly prices span from €68.88 to €235.21, giving a total range of about €166.33 between the lowest and highest observed hours. Daily minimums mostly stay above €80, while daily maximums vary more strongly, ranging from around €136.86 up to €235.21 depending on the day.
Our last week's forecast had an MAE of 20.74 EUR/MWh, but managed well to anticipate the week's price shape, with initially higher prices than in the end of the week.
