DE/LU Price Forecast Jan 06-13: Starting the year with low wind and prices between €100-150€/MWh

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Hourly price pattern: Prices follow a consistent intraday shape with overnight levels around €75 at 01:00, rising steadily through the morning to about €123 at 06:00, peaking on average near €126 at 07:00, and easing back toward €75 by 23:00.

• 🌬️ Wind and weather dominance: Periods with higher wind speeds between 17 and 29 m/s on days like Jan 9 and Jan 10 coincide with broader intraday price ranges, while lower wind conditions around 6–8 m/s on Jan 6 align with more compressed price movements.

• 📅 Standout price days: Jan 16 shows the highest forecasted quarter-hourly price of €214 at 18:00, while Jan 12 records the lowest observed price at €11 at 03:00 under high cloud cover near 100 percent and minimal solar radiation.

• 🔥 Peak price observations: Daily peak prices commonly occur in the early evening between 17:00 and 19:00, with values exceeding €170 on Jan 6, Jan 8, and Jan 9 and surpassing €200 on Jan 13 and Jan 16.

• 📉 Price range comparison: Across the forecast period, daily minimum prices range from €11 to about €86, while daily maximum prices span from roughly €127 up to €214, indicating substantially wider spreads on high-wind, high-cloud days compared with clearer, lower-wind days.

Note: Since we have not published a forecast last week due to the christmas week, there is no comparison today.