DE/LU Price Forecast Jan 13-20: Warmer temperatures, moderate price recovery

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

• 📊 Hourly price pattern: During Jan 13–19, prices repeatedly form a clear intraday shape with lows overnight such as €89 at 02:00 on 2026-01-13, rising steadily through the morning and reaching daily maxima in the late afternoon before declining again in the evening.

• 🌬️ Wind and weather dominance: Average wind speeds remain elevated through the week at roughly 7.5–9.5 m/s, while solar radiation stays very limited in winter with daytime peaks mostly below 50 W/m² and cloud cover frequently above 70 %, reducing solar-driven price relief.

• 📅 Standout price days: The most pronounced price day in the week ahead is Thursday 2026-01-15, when prices climb from around €95 in the early morning to about €160 at 16:00, remaining above €140 for several consecutive afternoon hours.

• 🔺 Peak price observations: Daily peak prices consistently occur between 16:00 and 18:00, including €203 at 16:00 on 2026-01-13 and €166 at 17:00 on 2026-01-16, confirming a stable late-afternoon peak window across the week.

• 📈 Price range comparison: Daily spreads range from narrower intervals such as roughly €92–133 on Sunday 2026-01-18 to wider ranges like €88–203 on Tuesday 2026-01-13, aligning with fluctuations in wind speed between about 6.5 m/s and over 9 m/s under persistently high cloud cover.

While capturing the overall price trend, our three-day-ahead forecast missed the price peak on the 8th of August, leading to an overall MAE of 26.46 EUR/MWh. We note that the elevated price forecast would have been captured better by our daily day-ahead forecast, which we do not publish on this blog.