DE/LU Price Forecast Jan 20-27: Low wind and low temperatures drive prices over 200€/MWh

Leo Semmelmann

19 Jan 2026 — 2 min read

We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.

📊 Hourly pattern consistency: Prices follow a stable daily rhythm with overnight lows averaging €100 between 02:00-04:00, a steady rise through morning to €145 at 08:00, a modest midday dip to €131 at 12:00 as solar peaks, then a steep climb to evening highs at 17:00 averaging €181 before declining to €107 by 23:00.
💨 Low wind levels: Wind speeds range from low 6.2 m/s on Tuesday to 9.9 m/s on Saturday, with Thursday's moderate 7.8 m/s contributing to the week's narrowest daily spread of €66, while higher wind on Saturday (9.9 m/s) coincides with a compressed €90 price range despite weekend demand reduction.
⚡ Standout price event: Monday January 26 emerges as the week's most volatile day with prices reaching €265 at 17:15, driven by 90% cloud cover limiting solar output to 41 W/m² average while temperatures sit at -2.2°C, pushing heating demand and creating a €163 daily swing from €103 to €265.
🔺 Peak price observations: Evening peaks between 16:00-18:00 average €179 across the week with daily peak averages ranging from €141 on Thursday to €254 on Monday, and cloud cover during these hours varies dramatically from 3% on Tuesday to 98% on Monday, corresponding closely with price intensity.
📈 Weekly price range: The forecast spans €86 at 04:00 Saturday to €265 at 17:15 Monday, producing a €179 weekly range with daily volatility tightening mid-week at €66-€107 spreads on Wednesday through Thursday before widening to €90-€163 on weekend through Monday.

Our last week's MAE was at 19.18 EUR/MWh. While we did not capture Tuesday's price peak shape, our forecast throughout the week followed the actual pattern well.