DE/LU Price Forecast Jan 27-Feb 2: Starting February with lower prices
We forecast the next two weeks of quarter-hourly day-ahead prices on the German electricity market based on our flagship Quantum 0.1 model, which we describe here in detail. The actual forecast values can be downloaded in this Google Sheet. In the following, you can find an LLM-generated interpretation of the next two weeks' forecast.
• 📊 Hourly price pattern: The hourly shape is consistent across most days, with prices typically bottoming in the night or early morning and peaking in the late afternoon, such as €167.71 at 16:00 on Jan 28 and €164.76 at 16:00 on Jan 29.
• 🌬️ Wind and weather dominance: Wind is persistently elevated for the season, with daily average wind speeds rising from ~7.59 m/s (Jan 27) to ~18.07 m/s (Jan 31), while cloud cover stays very high at ~83–98% daily average, indicating limited clear-sky solar conditions.
• 📅 Standout price events: The highest-price day is Thu Feb 5, when prices reach €182.19 at 16:00, while the lowest-price day is Sun Feb 8, when prices fall to €44.28 at 00:00, creating the widest overall range in the forecast.
• 🔺 Peak price observations: Peak prices concentrate in the afternoon window, with repeated hourly highs above €150 at HH:00, including €170.20 at 07:00 on Jan 27, €152.27 at 17:00 on Jan 30, and €182.19 at 16:00 on Feb 5.
• 💶 Price range comparison: The full forecast spans €44.28 to €182.19 at HH:00, and daily HH:00 ranges vary materially, from a tighter €63.11–€126.80 on Jan 31 to a broader €74.09–€182.19 on Feb 5, while solar radiation averages remain winter-moderate at roughly ~21–56 W/m² per day even on the brighter days.
Our last week's MAE was at 21.50 EUR/MWh. As we announced in the title of last week's article, we were seeing prices above 200€/MWh. However, we underestimated the actual peak prices on the 20th of January (but predicted the right shape of the price).
