DE/LU Forecast for Tue Apr 28: Dual Peaks around 130 EUR/MWh and 20 Quarter-Hours of Negative Prices

We are forecasting day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone with our flagship model Quantum 1.0. Below you can find today's forecast and a concise interpretation, as well as an honest review of how well yesterday's forecast performed.

Today's forecast

• 📈 Daily price pattern: On this Tuesday, prices are forecast to open at €108/MWh at midnight and ease to a stable overnight floor of €88–96/MWh through to 05:00, before ramping through the early morning to reach €129.08/MWh at 07:15, a level consistent with recent spring weekday morning peaks in the DE/LU zone. Solar generation then drives a steep collapse, with prices falling below €25/MWh by 10:30, turning negative by 11:30, and remaining in negative territory almost continuously through to 16:15, before a gradual afternoon recovery brings prices back above €100/MWh from 18:45 onward, peaking at €130.35/MWh at 21:00 and then easing to €94/MWh by midnight.
• ☀️ Negative prices: The forecast records 20 quarter-hours of negative prices between 11:30 and 16:15, reaching a trough of -€33.84/MWh at 13:45, as midday solar feed-in on this spring weekday exceeds demand across the DE/LU zone.
• 📊 Pronounced dual peaks: The forecast intraday spread reaches approximately €164/MWh, from the -€33.84/MWh midday trough to the €130.35/MWh evening peak, with the day notable for having two price peaks of almost exactly equal height: a morning peak of €129.08/MWh at 07:15 and an evening peak of €130.35/MWh at 21:00.

Review of yesterday's forecast

Overall: The forecast correctly reproduced the structural shape of the DA prices for April 27, with a stable overnight base around €103–114/MWh, a morning ramp peaking near 07:00, a midday trough driven by solar feed-in, and a pronounced evening recovery. The R² of 0.933 confirms a high degree of co-movement between forecast and actual prices. The negative bias reveals an under-forecast across multiple hours of the day.

Peak: The forecast correctly identified 19:45 as the daily maximum, so timing was exact. The actual peak of €224.33/MWh came in €42.54/MWh above the forecast of €181.79/MWh — a miss of roughly 23%.

Minimum: The actual minimum was -€1.00/MWh, reached at both 13:30 and 13:45. The forecast placed its minimum of -€12.88/MWh at 13:15 — just 15 minutes earlier than the actual minimum — and overestimated the depth by about €12/MWh.