DE/LU Prices Tue May 5: Dual Peaks up to 180 EUR/MWh, No Negatives

We are forecasting day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone with our flagship model Quantum 1.0. Below you can find today's forecast and a concise interpretation, as well as an honest review of how well yesterday's forecast performed.

Today's forecast

• 📈 Daily price pattern: On this Tuesday, prices are forecast to open at an elevated €125.67/MWh at midnight and hold a stable overnight floor of €108-119/MWh through to 05:00, before ramping sharply to a morning peak of €163.40/MWh at 07:00. Prices fall rapidly as solar generation builds, collapsing to a midday trough of €22.52/MWh at 14:00. After a gradual afternoon recovery, prices surge again from 17:30 to reach an evening peak of €179.52/MWh at 19:45 before easing to €97-110/MWh through the final hours of the day.
• ☀️ No negative prices: Despite the characteristic spring solar-driven midday trough, the forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours, with the minimum of €22.52/MWh at 14:00 remaining comfortably positive. This contrasts with several recent trading days in the DE/LU zone with very low prices.
• 📊 Dual peaks and intraday spread: The forecast features two distinct peaks, with the morning peak of €163.40/MWh at 07:00 and the evening peak of €179.52/MWh at 19:45 both sustaining above €145/MWh for multiple consecutive quarter-hours, producing an intraday spread of approximately €157/MWh.

Yesterday's forecast

Peaks: The forecast nailed the timing of the lower morning peak at 07:00 perfectly. However, the magnitude was off by −19.32 €/MWh. The shape of the morning ramp was tracked reasonably well, but the absolute level was consistently too low across the entire 07:00–09:00 window. With regard to the higher evening peak, the forecast timing was close but not exact, missing by 15 minutes (actual 19:45 (356.27 €/MWh) vs. forecast 20:00 (199.17 €/MWh)). Here, the magnitude miss was severe with -183.20 €/MWh.

Minimum: The actual minimum occurred at 13:30 with a price of 63.00 €/MWh. The forecast placed its own minimum at 13:45 with -4.87 €/MWh, so the timing was only off by 15 minutes. The magnitude error, however, was large with a miss of -67 €/MWh.

Overall: the unexpectedly high evening prices led to a rare high MAE of 39.60€/MWh and low R² of 0.107.