DE/LU Prices Sat Apr 25: Negative Midday Down to -72 EUR/MWh

We are forecasting day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone with our flagship model Quantum 1.0. Below you can find today's forecast and a concise interpretation as well as an honest review of how well yesterday's forecasts performed.

Today's forecast

• 📈 Daily price pattern: On Saturday, prices are forecast to open at 101€/MWh at midnight and hold a relatively stable overnight floor of 86–95€/MWh through to 06:00, before a modest morning ramp reaches a peak of 106.54€/MWh at 07:00, significantly lower than the morning peaks seen on recent weekdays, amongst others due to reduced weekend demand. Solar generation then drives a sharp collapse through the late morning, with prices turning negative by 09:45 and remaining deeply negative through the afternoon before a gradual recovery takes hold from 17:30, reaching 99–103€/MWh between 19:30 and 20:30 and then easing to 60–77€/MWh for the final hours of the day.
• ☀️ Negative prices: The forecast records 30 quarter-hours of negative prices, with a near-continuous block stretching from 10:15 through 17:15. Prices are forecast to stay below -50€/MWh for 16 consecutive quarter-hours between 12:00 and 16:00 in the DE/LU zone.
• 📊 Spread: The forecast daily spread reaches approximately 179€/MWh, measured from the -72.34€/MWh trough to the 106.54€/MWh morning peak.

Review of yesterday's forecast

• Overall accuracy: The MAE of 7.14 and the R² of ~0.98 show that the forecast tracked the day's shape well. The morning ramp, the solar-driven midday trough, and the evening recovery are all present and well timed.
• Negative prices: The forecast performed well at the minimum and the negative price trough. It placed the minimum at 14:15 (-26.84€/MWh), 30 minutes after the actual minimum at 13:45 (-27.30€/MWh).
• Peak: The forecast hit the two daily peaks well, but expected the absolute peak in the morning at 133.88€/MWh, whereas it occurred in the evening at 146.69€/MWh.