DE/LU Prices Wed Apr 29: Dual Peaks up to 147 EUR/MWh, Spread of 180 EUR/MWh

We are forecasting day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone with our flagship model Quantum 1.0. Below you can find today's forecast and a concise interpretation, as well as an honest review of how well yesterday's forecast performed.

Today's Forecast

• 📈 Daily price pattern: On this Wednesday, prices are forecast to open at €92/MWh at midnight and ease to a floor of €77–85/MWh through to 02:00, before ramping steadily from 03:00 onward to reach the morning peak of €142.26/MWh at 07:00. Solar generation then drives a rapid collapse through the late morning, with prices turning negative by 12:45, before a sustained afternoon recovery pushes prices back above €100/MWh from 18:30, peaking at €147.27/MWh at 19:45 and then easing to €91/MWh by midnight.
• ☀️ Negative prices: The forecast records 11 quarter-hours of negative prices in a volatile midday window from 12:45 to 15:15, with the trough reaching -€33.15/MWh at 14:30. The negative window is notably shorter and more volatile than on recent days.
• 📊 Intraday spread and dual peaks: The forecast intraday spread reaches approximately €180/MWh, from the -€33.15/MWh midday trough to the €147.27/MWh evening peak, with both the morning peak of €142.26/MWh at 07:00 and the evening peak of €147.27/MWh at 19:45 sustaining above €130/MWh for multiple consecutive quarter-hours.

Yesterday's Forecast Review

Overall: The MAE of €7.08/MWh and R² of 0.973 confirm the high overall accuracy of the forecast.

Peak: The forecast hit both peaks well. The actual morning peak was under-forecast by €4.29/MWh. The real evening maximum was under-forecast by just €2.73/MWh. While the forecast expected the evening peak to be slightly higher, the actual daily maximum occurred in the morning. The two peaks were close in magnitude, i.e. only €3.94/MWh apart.

Minimum: The forecast hit the actual minimum quarter-hour at exactly 13:45 perfectly. The price minimum was almost perfectly matched, too, with a forecast of -€33.84/MWh vs actual -€35.47/MWh - a miss of just €1.63/MWh. The entire negative price window was well captured in both timing and magnitude.