DE/LU Prices Tue Jun 2: Evening Peak up to 250 EUR/MWh

We forecast day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone with our frontier model Quantum 1.0. Below you will find today's forecast and an honest review of how well yesterday's forecast performed.

Day-Ahead Forecast

• ⚡ Daily price pattern: On this Tuesday, prices are forecast to open elevated at €154.30/MWh at midnight and ease to a high overnight floor before the morning peak of €154.47/MWh at 07:00. The midday dip is relatively shallow with a trough of €60.02/MWh at 12:45, after which prices recover steadily through the afternoon and climb sharply in the evening to reach €248.84/MWh at 20:45, before easing through the final hours of the day.
• 📉 No negative prices and shallow midday trough: The forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours, with the daily minimum of €60.02/MWh at 12:45 remaining well above zero.
• 📈 Pronounced evening peak and wide spread: The forecast intraday spread reaches approximately €189/MWh, driven primarily by a strong evening peak of €248.84/MWh at 20:45 that sits well above the morning peak of €154.47/MWh, with prices sustaining above €185/MWh for five consecutive quarter-hours between 20:00 and 21:00.

Review of Yesterday's Forecast

📊 Accuracy: Yesterday was a high-volatility day, with the actual evening peak reaching €422.28/MWh and a spread of more than €330/MWh. Against this backdrop, the forecast delivered an R² of 0.874, meaning it explained roughly 87% of the day's price variance.

📈 Peak: The actual daily peak of €422.28/MWh landed at 20:45, while the forecast placed its own peak at 20:30, missing the correct quarter-hour by 15 minutes. The magnitude miss was substantial in absolute terms, with the forecast reaching only €332.90/MWh at the true peak quarter-hour, an under-forecast of €89.38/MWh.

🔻 Minimum: The actual minimum of €86.00/MWh occurred at 15:00. The forecast set its lowest point earlier at 14:15. No negative prices appeared and the model correctly avoided forecasting any.